Title: Forecasting the rate of socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Authors: Tatiana Ivanova

Addresses: Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 32, Nakhimovsky Ave., Moscow, 117218, Russia

Abstract: The paper provides a forecast of the socio-economic development of healthcare before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and taking into account its impact. The study is divided into two blocks: 2009-2018 with a forecast up to 2022 (alternative reality, where the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was not taken into account) and 2011-2020 with a forecast up to 2024 (actual reality). For this purpose, a methodology for assessing the pace of healthcare development has been developed and 126 forecast graphs have been built. A comparative analysis of the forecasts for the two periods according to the developed formula mathematically proves that the COVID-19 pandemic was a bifurcation point that launched the mechanism of the "black swan" theory and worsened all the emerging trends in the socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation over the past 10 years!

Keywords: healthcare; socio-economic development; assessment methodology; rate of change; integral indicator; forecasting; COVID-19 pandemic; "black swan"; alternative reality; comparative analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHTM.2023.134456

International Journal of Healthcare Technology and Management, 2023 Vol.20 No.4, pp.365 - 391

Received: 08 Feb 2022
Accepted: 24 Feb 2023
Published online: 23 Oct 2023 *

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