Article: Simulation-based seismic risk and robustness assessment of ageing bridge networks Journal: International Journal of Critical Infrastructures (IJCIS) 2023 Vol.19 No.6 pp.578 - 602 Abstract: Civil infrastructure systems are prone to environmental deterioration processes that gradually reduce their mechanical properties and their capability to sustain severe natural hazards, such as earthquakes. The rate of occurrence of major seismic events, the time-variant seismic vulnerability of single bridges, and the indirect economic losses due to traffic flow redistribution related to the closure of key routes within the highway network are affected by uncertainties to be addressed by modelling their constitutive parameters as random variables and processes. This paper presents an integrated simulation-based methodology to estimate the user cost-based risk and system robustness of spatially distributed bridge networks subjected to prescribed deterioration and regional seismic hazard scenarios. Life-cycle seismic risk metrics are evaluated in terms of bridges failure rates and exceedance rates of indirect monetary losses based on free-flow traffic analysis and user cost assessment. The lifetime system robustness is also evaluated based on appropriate probabilistic performance indicators. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Simulation-based seismic risk and robustness assessment of ageing bridge networks

Authors: Tian Lu; Luca Capacci; Mattia Anghileri; Silvia Bianchi; Dong Luo; Fabio Biondini

Addresses: School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy ' School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, China ' Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

Abstract: Civil infrastructure systems are prone to environmental deterioration processes that gradually reduce their mechanical properties and their capability to sustain severe natural hazards, such as earthquakes. The rate of occurrence of major seismic events, the time-variant seismic vulnerability of single bridges, and the indirect economic losses due to traffic flow redistribution related to the closure of key routes within the highway network are affected by uncertainties to be addressed by modelling their constitutive parameters as random variables and processes. This paper presents an integrated simulation-based methodology to estimate the user cost-based risk and system robustness of spatially distributed bridge networks subjected to prescribed deterioration and regional seismic hazard scenarios. Life-cycle seismic risk metrics are evaluated in terms of bridges failure rates and exceedance rates of indirect monetary losses based on free-flow traffic analysis and user cost assessment. The lifetime system robustness is also evaluated based on appropriate probabilistic performance indicators.

Keywords: multi-hazard risk; structural robustness; Monte Carlo simulation; MCS; ageing bridge networks; seismic hazard; fragility curves; user cost.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2023.134622

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2023 Vol.19 No.6, pp.578 - 602

Received: 24 Jun 2021
Accepted: 19 Oct 2021
Published online: 01 Nov 2023 *

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Title: Simulation-based seismic risk and robustness assessment of ageing bridge networks

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