Title: A framework for the evaluation of MRP complex precipitation in a CORDEX-SA regional climate applied to REMO

Authors: Shashikant Verma; A.D. Prasad; Mani Kant Verma

Addresses: Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India ' Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India ' Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology, Raipur, Chhattisgarh, India

Abstract: In this study, rainfall patterns are depicted using 16 regional climate models of seasonal monsoon across the Mahanadi Reservoir Project (MRP) Complex region from 1980 to 2005. Bias correction and different statistical analyses were used to evaluate the model's degree of uncertainty and model performance with the relevant observations, respectively. The purpose of this study is to: 1) compare the capability of regional climate models (RCMs) in reproducing seasonal monsoons; 2) climate change impact in the near future (2021-2046), mid-future (2047-2072), and far-future (2073-2098) over the study area. The seasonal monsoon rainfall under two different RCPs (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) was used to test the experiments and data's ability. Among 16 Coordinated Regional Climatic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models, the REgional MOdel (REMO 2009) has a higher R² (i.e., 0.610). Therefore, such studies assist to analyse the impact of monsoon rainfall on different sectors and responding to climate change.

Keywords: CORDEX-South Asia; MRP complex; regional climate model; RCM; bias correction; statistical analysis.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2024.135125

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2024 Vol.17 No.1, pp.17 - 45

Received: 03 Sep 2021
Accepted: 03 Jun 2022
Published online: 01 Dec 2023 *