Title: ICT service exports in South Asia: a cross-country forecasting approach

Authors: Abu Naser Mohammad Saif; Azmawani Abd Rahman; S.M. Masudur Rahman; Nusrat Jafrin

Addresses: School of Business and Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia; Department of Management Information Systems, Faculty of Business Studies, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh ' School of Business and Economics, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43400 UPM Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia ' Department of Finance, Faculty of Business Studies, University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh ' Department of Population Sciences, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract: The aim of the current study is to depict the forecasting trend of information and communication technology (ICT) service exports for the eight South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka). The latest available secondary data on ICT service exports for those South Asian countries from the World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank dataset for the period of 2008 to 2017 were used for this study. For identifying the trend pattern, the least-square trend equation on deseasonalised data of ICT service exports has been used. In the least square trend equation, the independent variable is time and the dependent variable is deseasonalised data. Time series regression model has been initiated to forecast future values based on earlier mentioned values in the dataset. Findings of the study indicate that six countries (Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) have an upward trend of ICT service exports for the period 2018-2025, and two countries (Afghanistan and Bhutan) have a downward trend of ICT service exports for the same time interval.

Keywords: ICT service exports; South Asia; least square trend equation; deseasonalised data; time-series regression.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBIR.2023.135494

International Journal of Business Innovation and Research, 2023 Vol.32 No.4, pp.429 - 456

Received: 31 Mar 2021
Accepted: 27 May 2021
Published online: 15 Dec 2023 *

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