Title: Dynamic assessment and prediction of maize drought hazard in Liaoning Province under the background of climate change

Authors: Rina Wu; Yue Yang; Xueming Li

Addresses: School of Geographical Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China ' School of Geographical Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China ' School of Geographical Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China

Abstract: As the climate warms, the safety of maize production in Liaoning Province has been jeopardised by the increasing occurrence of droughts. In the study, starting with the hazard factors of drought disaster risk, a comprehensive drought index and drought assessment model in Liaoning Province is constructed through the Maxent model. Eventually, the study will predict the maize drought disaster hazard under different scenarios. The results show that: 1) the drought frequency and severity have increased; in addition, they are commonly distributed spatially, with high drought frequency and severity in the northwest and low in the southeast; 2) the drought hazard varies according to the area, and the northwest is more vulnerable to drought than the southeast; 3) the drought hazard for 2020-2100 is more prevalent in northwest Liaoning compared to the southeast. The results can serve as a theoretical foundation and scientific direction for guaranteeing food security in Liaoning Province.

Keywords: climate change; maize; drought disaster; hazard assessment; estimate.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.135983

International Journal of Global Warming, 2024 Vol.32 No.2, pp.185 - 212

Received: 01 May 2023
Accepted: 06 Jul 2023
Published online: 11 Jan 2024 *

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