Title: Forecasting symbiosis in tourism enterprise networks: Monte Carlo simulation of risk and return

Authors: Ploypailin Kijkasiwat; Jennifer Cave; Nirosha Hewa Wellalage; Stuart Locke

Addresses: Faculty of Business Administration and Accountancy, Khon Kaen University, Thailand ' School of Management, Swansea University, Wales, UK; School of People, Environment and Planning, Massey University (Palmerston North), New Zealand ' UniSA Business School, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia ' School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, The University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand

Abstract: This study re-conceptualises the relationship between symbiosis and risk/return as an influence for economic benefit or harm for micro, small and medium enterprises in tourism. A critique of predictive literature identifies Monte Carlo simulation's capacity to use non-parametric data and input of multiple, concurrent variables as best suited to forecasting firms' performance. Statistically significant risk/return variables are established from national monitors. The secondary which is accessed from the New Zealand Business Benchmarking Survey and the Management Resource Centre is used for the simulations. Results show that businesses in different industries were affected by range of factors that resulted in variation in a particular firm's profit. Hospitality enterprises are most vulnerable, accommodation and retail firms experience greater flux, but the retail component recovers quickly. The research contributes to symbiosis theory, predictive methodology and has implications for the economic recovery of the tourism sector.

Keywords: symbiosis; firm performance; risk and return; forecasting; micro, small and medium enterprise; MSME; tourism; hospitality.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSEM.2024.136056

International Journal of Services, Economics and Management, 2024 Vol.15 No.1, pp.63 - 83

Received: 15 Jul 2021
Accepted: 09 Oct 2022
Published online: 15 Jan 2024 *

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