Article: A comparative study of ARIMA, SVMs, and LSTM models in forecasting the Moroccan stock market Journal: International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling (IJSPM) 2023 Vol.20 No.2 pp.125 - 143 Abstract: Modelling and forecasting time series constitute important financial research areas for academics and practitioners. The stock markets significantly impact investment decisions in many different economic activities. Forecasting the direction of stock prices is essential in planning an investment strategy or determining the right time to trade. However, stock price movements (trends) are noisy, nonlinear, and chaotic. Predicting the evolution of price series to improve the return on investment is difficult. In this research, we are interested in modelling and forecasting the daily prices of a primary index in the Moroccan stock market. To this aim, we propose a comparative study between the results obtained from applying two independent approaches in machine learning (ML) methods as the support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and the classical method autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The empirical results show that LSTM and SVR nonlinear models can yield slightly better performance accuracy than the linear model ARIMA on average for log closing price series (37 trading days). Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: A comparative study of ARIMA, SVMs, and LSTM models in forecasting the Moroccan stock market

Authors: Hassan Oukhouya; Khalid El Himdi

Addresses: Laboratory LMSA, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University of Rabat, 4 Avenue Ibn Batouta, BP 1014 RP, Rabat, Morocco ' Laboratory LMSA, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, Mohammed V University of Rabat, 4 Avenue Ibn Batouta, BP 1014 RP, Rabat, Morocco

Abstract: Modelling and forecasting time series constitute important financial research areas for academics and practitioners. The stock markets significantly impact investment decisions in many different economic activities. Forecasting the direction of stock prices is essential in planning an investment strategy or determining the right time to trade. However, stock price movements (trends) are noisy, nonlinear, and chaotic. Predicting the evolution of price series to improve the return on investment is difficult. In this research, we are interested in modelling and forecasting the daily prices of a primary index in the Moroccan stock market. To this aim, we propose a comparative study between the results obtained from applying two independent approaches in machine learning (ML) methods as the support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and the classical method autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The empirical results show that LSTM and SVR nonlinear models can yield slightly better performance accuracy than the linear model ARIMA on average for log closing price series (37 trading days).

Keywords: time series forecasting; autoregressive integrated moving average; ARIMA; support vector regression; SVR; long short-term memory; LSTM; stock price; Moroccan all shares index; MASI.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2023.136481

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 2023 Vol.20 No.2, pp.125 - 143

Received: 06 Mar 2023
Accepted: 05 Oct 2023
Published online: 02 Feb 2024 *

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Title: A comparative study of ARIMA, SVMs, and LSTM models in forecasting the Moroccan stock market

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