Title: Model to estimate the impact of future CO₂ emissions due to the increase in the electric vehicle fleet - the case of the Brazilian capital

Authors: Wesley Cândido de Melo; Edwin Francisco Ferreira Silva; Augusto César de Mendonça Brasil

Addresses: Transport Graduate Program, University of Brasília – UnB, Building SG-12, 1st Floor, Campus Darcy Ribeiro, Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, Brazil ' Transport Graduate Program, University of Brasília – UnB, Building SG-12, 1st Floor, Campus Darcy Ribeiro, Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, Brazil ' Transport Graduate Program, University of Brasília – UnB, Building SG-12, 1st Floor, Campus Darcy Ribeiro, Asa Norte, Brasília, DF, Brazil

Abstract: This article proposes a model that estimates the growth of the individual transport vehicle fleet and the impact of electric vehicles on CO₂ emissions by the year 2050. For this purpose, a case study was carried out in the federal capital of Brazil, Brasília, to characterise real driving cycles, with measurements of speeds, fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions, and thus validate the proposed model. Therefore, the model was applied in scenario simulations, obtaining an 84% reduction in CO₂ emissions with the total change in the fleet from combustion vehicles to electric vehicles by the year 2050. In another perspective, by changing the composition of the current vehicle fleet to 50% ethanol-powered hybrid vehicles and 50% electric vehicles will reduce CO₂ emissions by 92%. The simulated scenarios indicated the potential for decarbonising CO₂ emissions by replacing the fleet of vehicles with ignition engines for hybrid and electric ones.

Keywords: vehicle fleet growth; driving cycle; CO₂ emissions; electric vehicles and Brazilian energy matrix.

DOI: 10.1504/WRITR.2023.137459

World Review of Intermodal Transportation Research, 2023 Vol.11 No.4, pp.415 - 435

Received: 23 Apr 2023
Accepted: 26 Aug 2023
Published online: 19 Mar 2024 *