Title: A study on India: the dynamic brunt of macroeconomic variables on movement of exchange rate

Authors: Baranidharan Subburayan

Addresses: School of Business and Management, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bangalore – 560 073, India

Abstract: This study's goal is to examine the dynamic behaviour of macroeconomic factors brunt on exchange rate movement in India over the period from May 2010 to August 2022. The study employed STATA software and econometric techniques including robust regression, GLS, and ARIMA model and the secondary data collected from RBI official website. The study's revealed that M3BM, IIP, and WIP had negative effects on the exchange rate, CMR and CP had favourable effects. Insignificant findings obtained for the TB, gold prices, NETFII, imported oil, TB91Days, and exchange rate (EXR). The study concluded that the exchanges rate movements were auto-regressed and brunt of economic fundaments was not effective expect, CMR and CP. The study offers regulators and policymakers the opportunity to create macroeconomic plans like INR as a trade exchange currency and for financial analysts and investors, as it helps them understand the interdependence of the macroeconomic variables and the exchange rate and thereby make informed investment decisions.

Keywords: exchange rate; macroeconomic variables; money supply; call money rate; wholesale price index; treasury bill; ARIMA model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJBFMI.2024.137646

International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, 2024 Vol.9 No.2, pp.133 - 159

Received: 09 Mar 2023
Accepted: 11 Mar 2023
Published online: 02 Apr 2024 *

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