Article: Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the real estate bubble in Vietnam's big cities with industrial zones Journal: International Journal of Economics and Business Research (IJEBR) 2024 Vol.27 No.3 pp.511 - 532 Abstract: The real estate market is an important part of every economy, but if it grows unreasonably, a real estate bubble may form and lead to consequences for the whole economy. Currently, the real estate market in Vietnam is still in the early stage and operates in a way quite different from the world market and has not kept up with the development of that in other countries. Having experienced a hard time during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessing a period of shocking increases in housing prices everywhere in Vietnam, it is very practical to analyse the factors affecting the formation of the real estate bubble so that measures to control it can be implemented. Using data from 2011 to 2021, with variables representing residential land price bubbles in big cities with industrial zones, namely Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ho Chi Minh, Binh Duong and Dong Nai, the authors construct a model to find macro factors affecting the formation of a real estate bubble in cities with industrial zones in Vietnam. They include economic growth, inflation, lending interest rates, M2 money supply, credit growth, migration rate and the provincial competitiveness. On that basis, the authors have proposed recommendations to prevent the real estate bubble in Vietnam. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the real estate bubble in Vietnam's big cities with industrial zones

Authors: Le Phuong Lan; Nguyen Quynh Anh

Addresses: Faculty of Banking and Finance, Foreign Trade University, 91 Chua Lang Street, Dong Da District, Hanoi, 8424, Vietnam ' Premier Banking Department, Tien Phong Bank, 44 Le Ngoc Han St., Pham Dinh Ho Ward, Hai Ba Trung District, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract: The real estate market is an important part of every economy, but if it grows unreasonably, a real estate bubble may form and lead to consequences for the whole economy. Currently, the real estate market in Vietnam is still in the early stage and operates in a way quite different from the world market and has not kept up with the development of that in other countries. Having experienced a hard time during the COVID-19 pandemic, witnessing a period of shocking increases in housing prices everywhere in Vietnam, it is very practical to analyse the factors affecting the formation of the real estate bubble so that measures to control it can be implemented. Using data from 2011 to 2021, with variables representing residential land price bubbles in big cities with industrial zones, namely Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Bac Giang, Ho Chi Minh, Binh Duong and Dong Nai, the authors construct a model to find macro factors affecting the formation of a real estate bubble in cities with industrial zones in Vietnam. They include economic growth, inflation, lending interest rates, M2 money supply, credit growth, migration rate and the provincial competitiveness. On that basis, the authors have proposed recommendations to prevent the real estate bubble in Vietnam.

Keywords: real estate bubble; macroeconomic factors; impact; industrial zones.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEBR.2024.138076

International Journal of Economics and Business Research, 2024 Vol.27 No.3, pp.511 - 532

Received: 12 Sep 2022
Accepted: 01 Jul 2023
Published online: 21 Apr 2024 *

Title: Impacts of macroeconomic factors on the real estate bubble in Vietnam's big cities with industrial zones

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