Title: Is it trustworthy to use GCMs data for future climatic predictions?

Authors: Jatinder Kaur; Prabhjyot-Kaur; S.S. Sandhu; Shivani Kothiyal

Addresses: Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, India ' Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, India ' Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, India ' Department of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology, Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana-141004, India

Abstract: The temperature and rainfall output from general circulation models (GCMs) is being widely used in climate change studies. But, is it correct to assume that the outputs from these GCMs, even after appropriate bias removal are giving a true picture of the climate change projections? So, a study was conducted to compare the simulated temperature and rainfall of four models (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, GISS-E2-R and IPSL-CM5A-MR) with actual observed data during five years (2017-2021) period. The comparison was conducted during the summer (March-May), monsoon (June-September), post monsoon (October-November) and winter (December-February) season under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 6.0) at agroclimatic zone (AZ) I (Gurdaspur), II (Ballowal Saunkhri), III (Ludhiana), IV (Bathinda) and V (Faridkot). The analysis revealed that both overestimation and underestimation was observed for simulated temperature (maximum: Tmax and minimum: Tmin) and rainfall (RF) over monthly, annual and seasonal time scale.

Keywords: agroclimatic zones; AZ; general circulation models; GCMs; historical data; temperature; rainfall; RCPs.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.138090

International Journal of Global Warming, 2024 Vol.33 No.1, pp.1 - 23

Received: 08 Jul 2023
Accepted: 24 Sep 2023
Published online: 29 Apr 2024 *

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