Title: Markovian model for forecasting the Lisbon terminal manoeuvring area capacity

Authors: Cátia Azevedo Simão; Kouamana Bousson

Addresses: Department of Aerospace Sciences, University of Beira Interior, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal ' Department of Aerospace Sciences, University of Beira Interior, 6201-001 Covilhã, Portugal

Abstract: In recent decades, there has been an increase in demand in the air transport sector which, despite being economically beneficial for this sector, is significantly worrying with regard to the proper air traffic flow management near the terminal manoeuvring areas (TMA) of the airports. For this reason, it is fundamental to develop and implement methodologies, tools and software's that can analyse the complexity of these situations and optimise the capacity of each TMA. In the particular case of the Lisbon TMA, the Markov Chain Theory was the methodology chosen for the construction of an algorithm that made it possible to fulfil the two objectives mentioned, allowing the identification of imbalances between demand and supply that proved the high degree of congestion experienced, during the analysed period, in this TMA and the need to implement measures that minimise the saturation periods.

Keywords: air traffic; air traffic flow optimisation; dynamic networks; Markov chains; terminal manoeuvring areas; TMA.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSA.2024.138695

International Journal of Sustainable Aviation, 2024 Vol.10 No.2, pp.142 - 158

Received: 02 Jan 2023
Accepted: 31 Jan 2024
Published online: 24 May 2024 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article