Title: National Flood Risk Index in climate change scenarios

Authors: Pedro Garrett; Filipe Duarte Santos

Addresses: CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal; 2adapt – Climate Adaptation Services LDA, Rua António Sampaio de Souza Maldonado, No. 15, 7100-699 Veiros, Portugal ' CE3C – Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract: Extreme weather events are gaining a global notoriety due to their increasing impacts. The need to adapt must be in line with the best practices by including the frequency and intensity of extremes in climate change scenarios, enabling the discovery of new hotspots and critical areas. This work develops a Flood Risk Index for continental Portugal, by combining three flood components: physical susceptibility, exposure, and the frequency of severe precipitation events in climate change scenarios. To accomplish this task 3,653 simulations of daily precipitation projections were conducted using a spatial-temporal statistical downscaling approach.

Keywords: flood risk; statistical downscaling; climate change; precipitation; weather extremes; INLA; spatial-temporal modelling; Bayesian statistics; ERA5; CanESM2.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.139269

International Journal of Global Warming, 2024 Vol.33 No.3, pp.284 - 298

Received: 01 Sep 2023
Accepted: 27 Feb 2024
Published online: 28 Jun 2024 *

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