Title: Time-frequency analysis of the older workforce and productivity growth nexus in the USA: evidence from EEMD- and wavelet-based approaches

Authors: Ahmed Bossman; Samuel Kwaku Agyei; Oliver Asiamah

Addresses: Department of Finance, School of Business, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana ' Department of Finance, School of Business, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana ' Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economiques, Universite de Limoges, France

Abstract: An economy whose active workforce is dominated by age is more likely to suffer from some productivity losses despite high government spending, which impacts economic development. Given the galloping growth rate of the proportion of the older workforce of the US population, we examine the productivity-older workforce relationship in the USA. We investigate the asymmetric causality between productivity and both the older and total labour force amid the growing aged class of the US workforce and the prevailing COVID-19 health crisis. We employ wavelet analysis, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition approach, and quantile-on-quantile regression techniques to quarterly data between June 1948 and June 2021. Our results evidence causality between growth in productivity and workforce. The relationships between the variables are asymmetric. During the COVID-19 period, we find a significant relationship between older labour force growth and productivity growth at high frequencies. Fascinating implications of our results are discussed.

Keywords: productivity growth; older labour force; time-frequency analysis; causality-in-means; COVID-19 pandemic; USA.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPQM.2024.140056

International Journal of Productivity and Quality Management, 2024 Vol.42 No.3, pp.297 - 326

Received: 21 Jan 2022
Accepted: 28 Jun 2022
Published online: 18 Jul 2024 *

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