Article: Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains Journal: Journal of Business and Management (JBM) 2002 Vol.8 No.1 pp.69 - 86 Abstract: A general Monte Carlo simulator for examining the nature of the bullwhip effect in supply chain management is presented here. It is a helpful pedagogical tool for demonstrating the presence of the bullwhip effect in classroom settings while avoiding the related and very difficult mathematical foundation of the effect. The computer program permits choosing customer demands that follow the uniform, binomial, Poisson, and normal probability distributions, as well as demand that has linear growth with random fluctuations over time. Output of the simulator includes the mean and standard deviation of periodic order size at each supply chain level. The output consistently shows increasing order size standard deviations at successive supply chain levels. The simulator has sufficient flexibility to permit the user to input the desired parameter values, ordering rule, and probability distributions. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

Authors: Peter M. Ellis

Addresses: Author address listing can be found in the "About the Authors" section at the end of the article.

Abstract: A general Monte Carlo simulator for examining the nature of the bullwhip effect in supply chain management is presented here. It is a helpful pedagogical tool for demonstrating the presence of the bullwhip effect in classroom settings while avoiding the related and very difficult mathematical foundation of the effect. The computer program permits choosing customer demands that follow the uniform, binomial, Poisson, and normal probability distributions, as well as demand that has linear growth with random fluctuations over time. Output of the simulator includes the mean and standard deviation of periodic order size at each supply chain level. The output consistently shows increasing order size standard deviations at successive supply chain levels. The simulator has sufficient flexibility to permit the user to input the desired parameter values, ordering rule, and probability distributions.

Keywords: Bullwhip effect; supply chain levels; Monte Carlo simulator; probability distributions; order size.

DOI: 10.1504/JBM.2002.141076

Journal of Business and Management, 2002 Vol.8 No.1, pp.69 - 86

Published online: 05 Sep 2024 *

Title: Analysis of the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

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