Title: From mental representation to strategic foresight: a guide to thriving in a VUCA business world

Authors: Morteza Soltani; Mohammad Ehsan Souri; Bahman Hajipour; Hamidreza Yazdani; Shib Sankar Sana

Addresses: Faculty of Management and Accounting, Department of Business Administration, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, 3718117469, Iran ' Faculty of Management and Accounting, Department of Business Administration, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, 3718117469, Iran ' Faculty of Management and Accounting, Department of Business Administration, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, 1983969411, Iran ' Faculty of Management and Accounting, Department of Business Administration, Farabi College, University of Tehran, Qom, 3718117469, Iran ' Department of Mathematics, Kishore Bharati Bhagini Nivedita College, Ramkrishna Sarani, Behala, Kolkata-700060, India

Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between representational complexity and strategic foresight in different volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) environments. Using the rough set theory, we discovered patterns that indicate the level of representational complexity that leads to better strategic foresight. The findings show that in uncertain and ambiguous environments, simple and less complex representations lead to more useful strategic foresight. However, in complex and volatile environments, complex representations result in more efficacious strategic foresight. This study extends past literature by investigating the previously unstudied relationship between representational complexity and strategic foresight in different contexts. The originality and value of this research lie in its contribution to the understanding of how mental representation can impact the success of strategies in VUCA environments.

Keywords: managerial cognition; mental representation; rough set theory; strategic decision-making; strategic foresight; VUCA; volatility; uncertainty; complexity and ambiguity.

DOI: 10.1504/IJKBD.2024.141631

International Journal of Knowledge-Based Development, 2024 Vol.14 No.3, pp.314 - 335

Received: 08 Oct 2023
Accepted: 18 Mar 2024
Published online: 27 Sep 2024 *

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