Title: Commodity prices, institutional quality and export diversification: the case of Mongolia

Authors: Gulguu Adiyabaatar; Liu Zhizhong

Addresses: Western Regional Branch of National University of Mongolia, 84140, Khovd Province, Mongolia ' School of Finance and Trade, Liaoning University, Shenyang, 110036, China

Abstract: Mongolia is a mineral commodity dependent and lower-middle-income country with a highly concentrated and volatile export basket. Interestingly, the potential determinants of the country's export diversification have not explored empirically. This paper is intended to investigate the effects of commodity price shocks and institutional quality on export diversification in Mongolia. To do so, the ARDL bounds testing approach is employed for the empirical analysis, using a dataset covering the period of 1995-2019. The results of the analysis suggest that commodity price shocks measured by the aggregate index of commodity prices and a country-specific commodity terms of trade index influence Mongolia's export diversification in both the long and short-run. For the contract intensive money, a proxy for institutional quality, it supports export diversification in Mongolia in the short-run, but not in the long-run.

Keywords: commodity dependency; export concentration; commodity price fluctuations; institutional quality; ARDL bounds testing approach; Mongolia.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSE.2024.141746

International Journal of Sustainable Economy, 2024 Vol.16 No.4, pp.487 - 506

Received: 11 Aug 2022
Accepted: 20 Dec 2022
Published online: 01 Oct 2024 *

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