Article: Bi-LSTM GRU-based deep learning architecture for export trade forecasting Journal: International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT) 2024 Vol.74 No.3 pp.235 - 245 Abstract: To assess a country's economic outlook and achieve higher economic growth, econometric models and prediction techniques are significant tools. Policymakers are always concerned with the correct future estimates of economic variables to take the right economic decisions, design better policies and effectively implement them. Therefore, there is a need to improve the predictive accuracy of the existing models and to use more sophisticated and superior algorithms for accurate forecasting. Deep learning models like recurrent neural networks are considered superior for forecasting as they provide better predictive results as compared to many of the econometric models. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the feasibility of using different deep-learning neural network architectures for trade forecasting. It predicts export trade using different recurrent neural architectures such as 'vanilla recurrent neural network (VRNN)', 'bi-directional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM)', 'bi-directional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU)' and a hybrid 'bi-directional LSTM and GRU neural network'. The performances of these models are evaluated and compared using different performance metrics such as Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE) and coefficient of determination <em>R</em>-squared (<em>R</em>²). The results validated the effective export prediction for India. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Bi-LSTM GRU-based deep learning architecture for export trade forecasting

Authors: Vaishali Gupta

Addresses: Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Indira Gandhi Delhi Technical University For Women, Delhi, India

Abstract: To assess a country's economic outlook and achieve higher economic growth, econometric models and prediction techniques are significant tools. Policymakers are always concerned with the correct future estimates of economic variables to take the right economic decisions, design better policies and effectively implement them. Therefore, there is a need to improve the predictive accuracy of the existing models and to use more sophisticated and superior algorithms for accurate forecasting. Deep learning models like recurrent neural networks are considered superior for forecasting as they provide better predictive results as compared to many of the econometric models. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the feasibility of using different deep-learning neural network architectures for trade forecasting. It predicts export trade using different recurrent neural architectures such as 'vanilla recurrent neural network (VRNN)', 'bi-directional long short-term memory network (Bi-LSTM)', 'bi-directional gated recurrent unit (Bi-GRU)' and a hybrid 'bi-directional LSTM and GRU neural network'. The performances of these models are evaluated and compared using different performance metrics such as Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE) and coefficient of determination R-squared (R²). The results validated the effective export prediction for India.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM; GRU; economic forecasting; international trade; RNN; recurrent neural network.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCAT.2024.141933

International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology, 2024 Vol.74 No.3, pp.235 - 245

Received: 21 Nov 2022
Accepted: 17 Mar 2023
Published online: 03 Oct 2024 *

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Title: Bi-LSTM GRU-based deep learning architecture for export trade forecasting

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