Title: Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on disease infection in the public health sector: a hybrid simulation approach

Authors: Mohammad A. Shbool; Ammar Al-Bazi; Laith Zureigat; Azmi M. Mahafzah

Addresses: Industrial Engineering Department, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan ' Aston Business School, Aston University, Birmingham B4 7ER, UK; Faculty of Business, Sohar University, P.O. Box 44, PCI 311, Sultanate of Oman ' Industrial Engineering Department, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan ' Department of Pathology, Microbiology and Forensic Medicine, School of Medicine, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan; Department of Clinical Laboratories and Forensic Medicine, Jordan University Hospital, Amman 11942, Jordan

Abstract: This study investigates the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including the use of cotton fabric masks and social distancing, on disease infections, such as COVID-19, and exposure rates within waiting areas of an emergency department. Employing a multi-agent simulation approach, the research models patient flow, with each agent representing a physical entity governed by predefined attributes and rules. The objective is to assess the performance of preventive measures quantitatively based on agent proximity and exposure time. Findings indicate that facemask usage reduces infections, and both facemask adherence and social distancing contribute to lower infection rates. The study highlights the similarity in effect between social distancing and a 20% facemask adherence rate. Additionally, it underscores that as more agents adopt facemasks, the time needed for exposure increases. Waiting areas emerge as potential hotspots for transmission.

Keywords: non-pharmaceutical interventions; NPIs; disease infection; COVID-19 exposure; hybrid simulation; waiting areas; public healthcare.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSPM.2024.141987

International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 2024 Vol.21 No.2, pp.130 - 146

Received: 11 Dec 2023
Accepted: 16 Feb 2024
Published online: 04 Oct 2024 *

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