Title: Geospatial modelling of forest fire risk and mitigation strategies: a case study

Authors: Ayoub Bouta; Said Laaribya; Othmane Brache; Turgay Dindaroglu

Addresses: Ibn Tofail University, Laboratory of Territories, Environment, and Development, Kenitra, Morocco ' Ibn Tofail University, Laboratory of Territories, Environment, and Development, Kenitra, Morocco ' Ibn Tofail University, Laboratory of Territories, Environment, and Development, Kenitra, Morocco ' Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Karadeniz Technical University, 61080 Trabzon, Turkey

Abstract: This study models forest fire risks and predicts fire distribution using GIS in Izarène Forest, Ouazzane Province, Morocco. The A. Dagorne and Y. Duche model, combined with indices for topography, vegetative flammability, and human activity, was weighted and calibrated, achieving 91.67% accuracy. The maps showed 34% of the area, mainly the western, northwest, southern, and South Eastern regions, had extremely high fire risk, while 26% had low susceptibility. Additionally, 56% of the road network and 68% of the population were in high-risk areas, underscoring the need for effective forest fire management planning.

Keywords: forest fire; modelling; Izarène forest; A. Dagorne and Y. Duche model.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2024.142423

International Journal of Global Warming, 2024 Vol.34 No.2, pp.162 - 175

Received: 19 Mar 2024
Accepted: 04 Jul 2024
Published online: 30 Oct 2024 *

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