Title: How port calls and port congestion affect Capesize shipping prices amid COVID-19 shocks? An estimation based on AIS data

Authors: Shun Chen; Xingjian Wang; Xiangyan Meng; Jinhong Mi

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, No. 1550 Lingang Avenue, Pudong New District, Shanghai, China ' School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, No. 1550 Lingang Avenue, Pudong New District, Shanghai, China ' School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, No. 1550 Lingang Avenue, Pudong New District, Shanghai, China ' School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Maritime University, No. 1550 Lingang Avenue, Pudong New District, Shanghai, China

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the global economy, particularly in the cargo carrier sector. Port congestion and port calls are used in our study as proxies to measure changes in seaborne supply and demand and they are estimated using detailed navigational information from the cargo vessel's automatic identification system (AIS) data. The dynamic effects of port congestion and port calls affected by the pandemic on the Capesize shipping market are quantified using the panel regression and threshold regression models from November 2017 to March 2022. According to the empirical findings, both port congestion and port calls have dynamic effects on the freight rates of iron ore trades due to changes in the supply and demand balance of maritime transport affected by the pandemic shock. From the perspective of maritime big data, our research illuminates how the Capesize shipping market responded to external epidemic shocks and the pass-through channels through which it is impacted; consequently, it should be of utmost importance for market stakeholders to anticipate and recover from disruptions during crisis periods.

Keywords: COVID-19; Capesize shipping; automatic identification system; AIS; iron ore trades.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSTL.2024.143137

International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, 2024 Vol.19 No.2/3, pp.175 - 197

Received: 30 Oct 2022
Accepted: 26 Mar 2023
Published online: 04 Dec 2024 *

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