Article: Dynamic performance of a delayed-onset disease model including death and recovery Journal: International Journal of Information and Communication Technology (IJICT) 2024 Vol.25 No.10 pp.1 - 18 Abstract: Due to the complex and constantly evolving process of infectious disease transmission, we have studied a class of delayed SIR models incorporating both death and recovery to control the spread of diseases. We creatively use bifurcation theories to determine the critical delay τ0 for Hopf bifurcation to comprehend the impact of time delay on the system. The analysis of periodic solutions and bifurcation directions, based on central manifold and normal form theory, offers insights into the system's dynamics. Simulations utilising time series charts and trajectory diagrams aid in comprehending the impact of hysteresis parameters. Additionally, data fitting is performed to verify the proposed model by contrasting it with actual data. The research demonstrates that the implementation of consistent preventive and hygienic measures can significantly reduce the severity of disease exacerbation. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Dynamic performance of a delayed-onset disease model including death and recovery

Authors: Quanhao Song

Addresses: School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 610500, China

Abstract: Due to the complex and constantly evolving process of infectious disease transmission, we have studied a class of delayed SIR models incorporating both death and recovery to control the spread of diseases. We creatively use bifurcation theories to determine the critical delay τ₀ for Hopf bifurcation to comprehend the impact of time delay on the system. The analysis of periodic solutions and bifurcation directions, based on central manifold and normal form theory, offers insights into the system's dynamics. Simulations utilising time series charts and trajectory diagrams aid in comprehending the impact of hysteresis parameters. Additionally, data fitting is performed to verify the proposed model by contrasting it with actual data. The research demonstrates that the implementation of consistent preventive and hygienic measures can significantly reduce the severity of disease exacerbation.

Keywords: SIR model; basic reproductive number; time delay; Hopf bifurcation; centre manifold theorem.

DOI: 10.1504/IJICT.2024.143333

International Journal of Information and Communication Technology, 2024 Vol.25 No.10, pp.1 - 18

Received: 24 Sep 2024
Accepted: 30 Oct 2024
Published online: 13 Dec 2024 *

Title: Dynamic performance of a delayed-onset disease model including death and recovery

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