Title: Intelligence and anticipation: issues in security, risk and crisis management

Authors: Paul Barnes, Michael B. Charles, Mark Branagan, Alistair Knight

Addresses: School of Management, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia. ' School of Management, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia. ' School of Management, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia. ' School of Management, Faculty of Business, Queensland University of Technology, GPO Box 2434, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia

Abstract: This article deals with the way in which intelligence flows and other critical information can be embedded into a risk framework that will facilitate the early warning of emerging threat scenarios. That is, an organisation should be able to anticipate crisis triggers and know when a crisis situation will manifest itself. As an outcome, a conceptual framework that defines how to make sense of complex situations, datasets and real world anomalies is suggested.

Keywords: anticipation; intelligence flows; sense-making; threat assessment; vulnerability; security; risk management; crisis management; early warning; emerging threats.

DOI: 10.1504/IJRAM.2007.015302

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 2007 Vol.7 No.8, pp.1209 - 1223

Published online: 02 Oct 2007 *

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