Title: Interval-valued evidence sets from simulated product competitiveness: a Bulgarian winery decision

Authors: Margaret F. Shipley, David Olson

Addresses: College of Business, University of Houston-Downtown, 320 N. Main St., Houston, Texas, 77002, USA. ' Department of Management, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68588-0491, USA

Abstract: An evidence set methodology is developed in this paper to address any situation where there is uncertainty involved in assessing experts| opinions on two or more related decisions. The environment is that of a Bulgarian winery in which several managers make a group decision about whether or not to undertake product introduction, and if so, in what cost range. Primary consideration for product introduction is based on perceived competitiveness of the local, regional and global markets, selling price and profitability of different wines. The paper presents the application utilising simulated results for the perceived factors with expert opinions acquired through collaboration with Bulgarian institutions of higher education. Using the simulated results based on input from the Bulgarian winery experts, evidence is combined that addresses uncertainty in the decision-making process. After illustrating how the paradigm works, an analysis of the benefits of the model is given.

Keywords: applied decision sciences; product competitiveness; fuzzy sets; simulation; Bulgarian wine; Bulgaria; decision making; decision uncertainty; group decisions; product introduction; product costing.

DOI: 10.1504/IJADS.2008.022977

International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 2008 Vol.1 No.4, pp.397 - 417

Published online: 05 Feb 2009 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article