Title: Towards the fifth Kondratiev upswing: elements of an emerging new growth phase and possible development trajectories

Authors: Arnulf Grubler, Helga Nowotny

Addresses: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. ' Institut fir Wissenschaftstheorie und Wissenschaftsforschung, Universitat Wien, Vienna, Austria

Abstract: This paper takes a long-term view on economic growth from an essentially Schumpeteriam perspective. The authors consider that since the early 1970s we have been witnessing a volatile and turbulent transition towards a new phase of socio-economic development, in which the diffusion of a host of interrelated new technologies, institutions and forms of organization could lead to a renewed period of economic growth and prosperity. They argue that the beginning of such a diffusion phase, in which the ultimate characteristics of the future development trajectory are being shaped, could constitute an opportunity window for reducing the disparities between countries as a result of their different degrees of economic development. They consider in addition that the successful catching-up will depend more on an effective introduction and diffusion of the elements of the emerging new development regime than on a growth model along the trajectories and intensity level of the previous model of development.

Keywords: economic growth; global development; Kondratiev upswing; Schumpeterian growth model; structural adjustments; technology diffusion; energy; transport; communications; developing countries; technology transfer.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.1990.025914

International Journal of Technology Management, 1990 Vol.5 No.4, pp.431 - 471

Published online: 25 May 2009 *

Full-text access for editors Full-text access for subscribers Purchase this article Comment on this article