Article: Climate change and wheat production in Argentina Journal: International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW) 2009 Vol.1 No.1/2/3 pp.214 - 226 Abstract: The aim of this work is to assess the impact of past and future climate changes on wheat productivity in the Pampas region of Argentina. The study was based on long-term climatic and crop productivity data, regional climatic scenarios and a crop simulation model. Our results demonstrate that the potential wheat yield has been declining at increasing rates since 1930 mainly due to minimum temperature increases. Further increases in temperature could lead to potential wheat yield reductions of 7.5% for each °C of temperature rise. If the expected effects of CO2 really do occur, the decline of the potential wheat yields due to temperatures that are 2.5°C warmer could be entirely offset by a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm. If the CO2 effects are not considered, rainfed wheat yields could be reduced by 4% by the end of the 21st century (2080), the northern part of the Pampas region being the most affected zone. Inversely, if the CO2 effects are considered, rainfed wheat yield could increase by 14%. Advancing planting dates could be a good strategy to take advantage of new environmental conditions with prolonged frost-free periods. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Climate change and wheat production in Argentina

Authors: Graciela O. Magrin, Maria I. Travasso, Gabriel R. Rodriguez, Silvina Solman, Mario Nunez

Addresses: INTA-CIRN, Los Reseros y Las Cabanas, 1712 Castelar, Argentina. ' INTA-CIRN, Los Reseros y Las Cabanas, 1712 Castelar, Argentina. ' INTA-CIRN, Los Reseros y Las Cabanas, 1712 Castelar, Argentina. ' CIMA, UBA, C. Universitaria, Pab. II, P.2, 1428 Bs As, Argentina. ' CIMA, UBA, C. Universitaria, Pab. II, P.2, 1428 Bs As, Argentina

Abstract: The aim of this work is to assess the impact of past and future climate changes on wheat productivity in the Pampas region of Argentina. The study was based on long-term climatic and crop productivity data, regional climatic scenarios and a crop simulation model. Our results demonstrate that the potential wheat yield has been declining at increasing rates since 1930 mainly due to minimum temperature increases. Further increases in temperature could lead to potential wheat yield reductions of 7.5% for each °C of temperature rise. If the expected effects of CO₂ really do occur, the decline of the potential wheat yields due to temperatures that are 2.5°C warmer could be entirely offset by a CO₂ concentration of 550 ppm. If the CO₂ effects are not considered, rainfed wheat yields could be reduced by 4% by the end of the 21st century (2080), the northern part of the Pampas region being the most affected zone. Inversely, if the CO₂ effects are considered, rainfed wheat yield could increase by 14%. Advancing planting dates could be a good strategy to take advantage of new environmental conditions with prolonged frost-free periods.

Keywords: global warming; wheat production; Argentina; climate change; crop productivity; crop simulation; modelling; wheat yields; CO2 emissions; carbon dioxide.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2009.027090

International Journal of Global Warming, 2009 Vol.1 No.1/2/3, pp.214 - 226

Published online: 14 Jul 2009 *

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Title: Climate change and wheat production in Argentina

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