Title: An environmentally conscious robust optimisation approach for planning power generating systems

Authors: A. Elkamel, F. Chui, E. Croiset, P.L. Douglas

Addresses: Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. ' Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. ' Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. ' Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada

Abstract: This study proposes a robust optimisation capacity expansion planning model that yields a less sensitive solution due to variations in model parameters such as demand and fuel prices. By adjusting the penalty parameters, the model can accommodate the decision maker|s risk aversion and yield a solution based upon it. The proposed model is then applied to Ontario Power Generation, the largest power utility company in Ontario, Canada. Using forecasted data for 2025 with a 40% CO₂ reduction from the 2005 levels, the model suggested closing most of the coal power plants and building new Natural Gas (NG) combined-cycle turbines and nuclear power plants to meet the demand and CO₂ constraints. The model robustness was illustrated on a case study and as expected, the model was found to be less sensitive to disturbances than the deterministic model.

Keywords: greenhouse gases; GHG emissions; environmental systems; mathematical modelling; robust optimisation; power generation; stochastic programming; capacity planning; capacity expansion; demand; fuel prices; risk aversion; Canada; CO2 emissions; carbon dioxide; coal power plants; natural gas; combined-cycle turbines; nuclear power; nuclear energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2009.027096

International Journal of Global Warming, 2009 Vol.1 No.1/2/3, pp.307 - 335

Published online: 14 Jul 2009 *

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