Title: Using traffic prediction models for providing predictive traveller information

Authors: Bin Ran

Addresses: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin at Madison, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA

Abstract: As a subsystem of an Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), an Advanced Traveller Information System (ATIS) disseminates real-time traffic information to travellers. To help travellers better make their route choice decisions, there is a strong need to predict traffic congestion and disseminate the predicted congestion information to travellers. This paper offers some insights and predictions on how ATIS information provision is becoming more pervasive due to recent advances in telecommunication systems. The paper also discusses how ATIS systems will likely evolve based on the experiences of Information Service Providers (ISP) and ATIS modelling specialists. Then, it reviews four types of prediction models: 1) simulation models; 2) dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) models; 3) statistical models; and 4) heuristic models. The functional requirements and capabilities of the four types of prediction models are discussed and summarised. Furthermore, a comprehensive prediction procedure is presented, which combines the four types of prediction models.

Keywords: Intelligent Transportation System; Advanced Traveller Information System; traveller information provision; predictive traffic information.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTM.2000.002870

International Journal of Technology Management, 2000 Vol.20 No.3/4, pp.326-339

Published online: 07 Jul 2003 *

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