Title: The prediction of Freight Throughput Capacity development of major coastal ports in China

Authors: Guo-Dong Li, Chen-Hong Wang, Daisuke Yamaguchi, Masatake Nagai, Shiro Masuda

Addresses: Department of System Design, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hino City, 191-0065 Japan. ' Department of Microbiology, Hebei North University, Zhang jiakou City, 075000 China. ' Department of Engineering, Kanagawa University, Yokohama City, 221-8686 Japan. ' Department of Engineering, Kanagawa University, Yokohama City, 221-8686 Japan. ' Department of System Design, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hino City, 191-0065 Japan

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new dynamic analysis model, which combines the first-order one-variable grey differential equation model GM(1, 1) from grey system theory and Markov chain model from stochastic process theory, to develop the prediction model of Freight Throughput Capacity (FTC). We abbreviate the combined GM(1, 1) Markov Chain model as MGM(1, 1) model. In addition, we apply Taylor approximation method to MGM(1, 1) to enhance the prediction power. We call the improved version as T-MGM(1, 1) model. As the illustrative example, we use the statistical data recording of China|s FTC of major coastal ports for a validation of the effectiveness of the T-MGM(1, 1) model.

Keywords: freight throughput capacity; GM 1,1 model; Markov chain; Taylor approximation method; shipping; coastal ports; China; dynamic analysis; first-order one-variable grey differential equations; stochastic process theory; prediction models; MGM 1,1 model; T-MGM 1,1 model; logistics systems; logistics management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJLSM.2010.031985

International Journal of Logistics Systems and Management, 2010 Vol.6 No.3, pp.335 - 358

Published online: 03 Mar 2010 *

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