Title: Probabilistic thermoeconomic risk assessment for evaluating climate change decisions

Authors: Amip Shah, Milton Meckler

Addresses: Hewlett Packard Company, 1501 Page Mill Road, MS 1183, Palo Alto, 94304 California, USA. ' Design Build Systems, 10573 West Pico Blvd #200, Los Angeles, 90064 California, USA

Abstract: Climate change is often considered in terms of its macroscale implications. But macroscale policy decisions may also significantly impact the localised design of products and services in different business ecosystems. This paper addresses this disconnect by exploring a methodology that combines engineering economics, probabilistic risk assessment, and thermodynamic analysis to evaluate different policy choices. The approach is demonstrated in the context of a representative segment of a hypothetical electrical grid distribution system located between two Electric Power Generating Stations (EPGS) facing overload as additional customer demands are projected to be integrated with renewable sources in the near-term future.

Keywords: macroscale policy; probabilistic risk assessment; thermodynamics; engineering economics; climate change decisions; policy choices; global warming; electrical grid distribution; electric power generation; customer demand; renewable energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2010.036133

International Journal of Global Warming, 2010 Vol.2 No.3, pp.211 - 224

Received: 20 Jan 2010
Accepted: 27 Apr 2010
Published online: 22 Oct 2010 *

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