Title: Frequency analysis of droughts using historical information – new approach for probability plotting position: deceedance probability

Authors: Yasser Hamdi

Addresses: Department of Civil Engineering, National School of Engineering, Gabes, 6029, Tunisia

Abstract: This paper presents a new statistical approach for droughts estimation. The conducted frequency analysis uses for the first time the |Deceedance| Probability using historical information. The developed approach was applied for the first time in Tunisia. The annual rainfall was fitted to eight distribution functions. A rigorous evaluation of the historical information, in terms of completeness and authenticity, is undertaken. It is shown that Weibull|s formula matched with the Log-Normal-III and Log-Pearson-III distributions gave the highest fit. These results are of practical relevance to water resources managers in arid and semi-arid regions for applications in droughts management and risk analysis.

Keywords: arid climate; semi-arid regions; drought frequency; extreme events; frequency analysis; deceedance probability; distribution function; plotting positions; historical information; droughts; drought estimation; Tunisia; drought management; risk assessment; water resources; resource management; water management.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2011.038380

International Journal of Global Warming, 2011 Vol.3 No.1/2, pp.203 - 218

Published online: 29 Jan 2015 *

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