Title: An agent-based method for planning innovations

Authors: Jörg Klasen; Donald Neumann

Addresses: EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG, Durlacher Allee 93, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany. ' Graduate School for Advanced Manufacturing Engineering, Universität Stuttgart, Keplerstr. 17, 10a., R.10.027, 70174, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract: Identifying potential demand for radical innovations is a major challenge for business planning. Nonetheless, decision making is still based on forecasts. Thus, better forecasting models lead to better decisions. This work suggests a new agent-based simulation model that merges concepts of diffusion models and discrete choice models. Thereby, a glimpse into market timing, market potential and the underlying individual preferences is possible. The model is applied in the study of Germany’s goal of 1,000,000 electric cars sold until 2020.

Keywords: agent-based systems; multi-agent systems; agent-based simulation; diffusion models; conjoint analysis; electric cars; electric vehicles; e-mobility; innovation planning; radical innovation; discrete choice models; Germany.

DOI: 10.1504/IJISD.2011.043073

International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development, 2011 Vol.5 No.2/3, pp.159 - 184

Received: 27 Oct 2010
Accepted: 05 Aug 2011
Published online: 13 Oct 2011 *

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