Title: Scenario analysis as a foresight tool in agriculture

Authors: Maria Giaoutzi; Anastasia Stratigea; Eveline Van Leeuwen; Peter Nijkamp

Addresses: Department of Geography and Regional Planning, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechniou str. 9, Zographou Campus, Athens 157 80, Greece. ' Department of Geography and Regional Planning, School of Rural and Surveying Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Heroon Polytechniou str. 9, Zographou Campus, Athens 157 80, Greece. ' Department of Spatial Economics, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. ' Department of Spatial Economics, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: Complexity and uncertainty are key issues in exploring future developments. Moreover, although the future cannot be predicted, it is clear that certain decisions/actions can influence the future in desired directions. In this respect, planners are being challenged to focus on the development of new approaches and tools, capable of dealing with complexity and uncertainty, in order to be able to effectively support policy makers in making more knowledgeable decisions to achieve desirable future outcomes. The focus of the present paper is on the development of such an approach, i.e., a backcasting policy-scenario design approach, used for the study of the future developments in EU agriculture in 2020. In this respect, the paper presents the main stream of methodological approaches for scenario building, i.e., forecasting and backcasting approaches; it elaborates on the steps involved in the backcasting policy-scenario design framework; and it follows these steps by adopting the backcasting policy-scenario design framework in the AG2020 EU project on the future of EU agriculture in 2020.

Keywords: foresight studies; scenario analysis; backcasting; AG2020; foresight analysis; world agricultural markets; Europe; European Union; EU; complexity; uncertainty; future developments; planners; new approaches; policy makers; knowledgeable decisions; desirable outcomes; future outcomes; scenario design; scenario building; forecasting; innovation policies; agriculture; sustainability; sustainable development.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFIP.2012.046106

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 2012 Vol.8 No.2/3, pp.105 - 128

Published online: 21 Nov 2014 *

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