Title: A statistical downscaling model with applications in northwestern Turkey

Authors: Zekâi Şen

Addresses: Civil Engineering Faculty, Hydraulics and Water Resources Division, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak 34469, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to develop a Statistical Downscaling Method (SDM) based on a set of statistical spatial and temporal pattern description techniques. Among such techniques that are first used in this paper are the Spatial Dependence Function (SDF) for spatial downscaling and the White Markov Process (WMP) for temporal similarity and their combination in an effective manner over Turkey. This methodology provides a common basis to compare 'low', 'medium' and 'high' rainfall amounts during the past and future 30-year periods. As for the 'low' rainfall amounts, there are slightly increasing trends in the 'low' rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: climate change; downscaling models; spatial dependence; trends; white Markov process; statistical patterns; Turkey; modelling; rainfall amounts.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2012.047271

International Journal of Global Warming, 2012 Vol.4 No.1, pp.31 - 51

Received: 04 Nov 2011
Accepted: 25 Jan 2012
Published online: 13 Dec 2014 *

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