Title: Infrastructure planning under uncertainty: a case study

Authors: P. Taneja; B.E. Van Turnhout; M.E. Aartsen

Addresses: Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. ' Port of Rotterdam Authority, Postbus 6622, 3002 AP Rotterdam, The Netherlands. ' Port of Rotterdam Authority, Postbus 6622, 3002 AP Rotterdam, The Netherlands

Abstract: The future of a port is determined by its long-term strategy. In most ports, space is scarce and valuable, which means that the available land must be used strategically. The alternatives for the cargo sectors and clients that can be placed at available locations are numerous and complex. The traditional method of project appraisal that relies on financial methods such as discounted cash flow method (DCF) and produces a single value on which to base a decision is less suitable under great uncertainty. In this paper we set up a stochastic business case to aid strategic decision-making for a project involving spatial planning of a port area in Western Europe.

Keywords: infrastructure planning; long-term planning; project appraisal; port planning; stochastic business case; uncertainty; strategic decision making; spatial planning; ports; critical infrastructures.

DOI: 10.1504/IJCIS.2012.049033

International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2012 Vol.8 No.2/3, pp.134 - 146

Published online: 31 Jul 2014 *

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