Title: Modelling of CO₂ content in the atmosphere until 2300: influence of energy intensity of gross domestic product and carbon intensity of energy

Authors: Wojciech M. Budzianowski

Addresses: Wrocław University of Technology, Wybrzeże Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland

Abstract: The study provides a model of CO₂ content in the atmosphere based on the global carbon cycle and the Kaya identity. The influences of: 1) energy intensity of GDP; 2) carbon intensity of energy on CO₂ trajectories are given under four scenarios. The results from the most optimistic and technologically challenging scenario show that the atmospheric CO₂ concentration can stabilise at 610 ppmv. It is also shown that the annual growth rates of atmospheric CO₂ peak for all the scenarios before 2100 due to the expected world population peak in 2075 and the large share of fossil fuel energy.

Keywords: CO2 concentration trajectory; carbon dioxide; global carbon cycle; GCC; Kaya identity; energy intensity; carbon intensity; modelling; carbon content; air pollution; air quality; gross domestic product; GDP; fossil fuel energy.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2013.051468

International Journal of Global Warming, 2013 Vol.5 No.1, pp.1 - 17

Received: 27 Mar 2012
Accepted: 26 May 2012
Published online: 28 Feb 2014 *

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