Title: Investigating the effects of uncertainties in the upstream gas sector

Authors: Sibel Eker; Els Van Daalen

Addresses: Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands ' Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands

Abstract: Natural gas is expected to become more important in the future to support the energy transition. However, the upstream gas sector faces many uncertainties which complicate the decision making to supply the required amounts of natural gas. This study deals with these uncertainties, by framing the natural gas production in a system of systems perspective, building a system dynamics model, carrying out an exploratory analysis and testing policy options. The results show that the annual production volume, energy consumption, onshore land use and CO₂ emission objectives can be achieved in the Netherlands only in a small portion of the future scenarios. Policies such as production limits and end of field life techniques are beneficial to increase the production, but also increase CO₂ emissions. In future studies, more policy alternatives can be generated and tested, the uncertainty analysis can be extended and the model can be used in broader energy models.

Keywords: uncertainty; natural gas production; decision making; system of systems; SoS; exploratory modelling; exploratory analysis; system dynamics; simulation; energy models; production volume; energy consumption; onshore land use; carbon dioxide; CO2; carbon emissions; future scenarios; The Netherlands.

DOI: 10.1504/IJSSE.2013.056290

International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 2013 Vol.4 No.2, pp.99 - 139

Received: 21 Dec 2012
Accepted: 28 Dec 2012
Published online: 28 Apr 2014 *

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