Title: Financial market contagion during the global financial crisis: evidence from the Moroccan stock market

Authors: Ahmed El Ghini; Youssef Saidi

Addresses: Economics Department, Eradiass, Faculty of Juridical, Economic and Social Sciences (Souissi), Mohammed V University, Rabat, Morocco ' Bank Al-Maghrib, Espace les Patios – Angle Avenue Mehdi Benbarka et Avenue, Annakhil Hay Ryad – Rabat, Morocco

Abstract: In this paper, we aim at the study of the contagion of the global financial crisis (2007-2009) on Moroccan stock market. Our study focuses to examine whether contagion effects exist on Moroccan stock market, during the current financial crisis. Following Forbes and Rigobon (2002), we define contagion as a positive shift in the degree of comovement between asset returns. We use stock returns in MASI, CAC, DAX, FTSE and NASDAQ as representatives of Moroccan, French, German, British and US markets, respectively. To measure the degree of volatility comovement, time-varying correlation coefficients are estimated by flexible dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model. We investigate empirical studies using the DCC-GARCH framework to test the contagion hypothesis from US and European markets to the Moroccan one.

Keywords: multivariate GARCH model; financial crisis; contagion hypothesis; break identification; conditional volatility; volatility comovement; financial markets; derivatives; Morocco; stock markets; asset returns; returns; time-varying correlation coefficients.

DOI: 10.1504/IJFMD.2015.066450

International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, 2015 Vol.4 No.1, pp.78 - 95

Received: 24 Feb 2014
Accepted: 01 Sep 2014
Published online: 19 Dec 2014 *

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