Title: Trends and variability of climate and river flow in context of run-of-river hydropower schemes: a case study of Sunkoshi river basin, Nepal

Authors: Binaya Kumar Mishra; Ripendra Awal; Srikantha Herath; Kensuke Fukushi

Addresses: Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan ' College of Agriculture and Human Sciences, Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, Texas, USA ' Institute for Sustainability and Peace, United Nations University, Tokyo, Japan ' Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract: The increasing trend of glacier retreat and climate change/variability has direct impact on run-of-river hydropower schemes. This study analyses climate change risk in a Himalayan Sunkoshi river basin which consists of several existing/under-construction run-of-river hydropower schemes. Climate change impact has been examined by comparing observed and projected hydro-climatic trends. Projected monthly climatology (based on A1B emission scenario) of Meteorological Research Institute, Japan has been employed for the analysis. Observed annual minimum and lean season (January, February, March and April) discharges, which have larger significance for run-of-river schemes were analysed to identify any significant trend. The annual minimum and lean season monthly discharges were found with decreasing trend. Comparison of present and future precipitation pointed out that there will be 4.3% increase in monsoon (June, July, August and September) precipitation and 10.4% decrease in remaining months. Similarly, the study revealed that monthly temperature will be increased by 1.5 to 4.6°C.

Keywords: climate change impact; run-of-river hydropower; river flow; GCM; global climate models; climate trends; climate variability; case study; Nepal; glacier retreat; monthly discharges; precipitation; monsoon; monthly temperature; modelling.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2014.068444

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2014 Vol.4 No.4, pp.282 - 293

Received: 01 Jul 2014
Accepted: 29 Sep 2014
Published online: 15 Apr 2015 *

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