Title: Diffusion of innovation: the case of the Slovak mobile communication market

Authors: Emese Tokarčíková; Alžbeta Kucharčíková

Addresses: Department of Macro and Microeconomics, Faculty of Management Science and Informatics, University of Žilina, Univerzitná 8215/1 010 26 Žilina, Slovak Republic ' Department of Macro and Microeconomics, Faculty of Management Science and Informatics, University of Žilina, Univerzitná 8215/1 010 26 Žilina, Slovak Republic

Abstract: Statisticians and prognostic models are often used by all economic subjects for forecasting of different aspects of their business activities. But what can they do when their novelties and innovation have no relevant historical data or have only a few objectionable (subject to quantity or periodicity) data? Despite the incomplete data, which are useless for traditional forecasting methods, all mobile operators request some kind of prediction about the success or failure of market acceptance of their novelties (innovations) and about their and future development. In this article, we try to look through how relevant principles and knowledge of diffusion theory can be applied in practise by creating some diffusion scenarios for adoption of mobile technologies and services in conditions of the Slovak mobile market. The conclusions made by us might be valuable for all mobile operators and content providers for future learning and decision-making in case they want to introduce a new mobile technology or service to the market.

Keywords: diffusion theory; Bass model; mobile services; m-services; forecasting scenarios; learning; telecommunications market; Slovakia; innovation diffusion; mobile communications; market acceptance; mobile phones; cell phones; mobile technologies.

DOI: 10.1504/IJIL.2015.068467

International Journal of Innovation and Learning, 2015 Vol.17 No.3, pp.359 - 370

Published online: 18 Apr 2015 *

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