Article: Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares Journal: International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW) 2015 Vol.7 No.4 pp.518 - 531 Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in China from 1979 to 2010. We propose a segmented equation for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The partial least squares method is used to estimate the equation parameters. The conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) China's CO2 emissions are still in the first stage of the EKC. A significant increase in income per capita is needed for China's CO2 emissions per capita to reach its peak point in the inverted U-shaped EKC; 2) the ideal equation used to simulate the relationship between China's income per capita and CO2 emissions per capita after 2010 is In(Ct) = −13.3568 + 3.1708In(It) − 0.1608(In(It))2. This equation can help China's government set its ideal CO2 control target at a specific income per capita, at least until the income per capita reaches RMB 19,137.2; 3) China's CO2 emissions per capita will peak some time between 2026 and 2027. After 2027, China's CO2 emissions per capita will decrease as income per capita increases. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares

Authors: Qian Gao; Ming Meng; Lei Wen; Dongxiao Niu

Addresses: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China ' School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei 071003, China

Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO₂ emissions in China from 1979 to 2010. We propose a segmented equation for the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The partial least squares method is used to estimate the equation parameters. The conclusions drawn are as follows: 1) China's CO₂ emissions are still in the first stage of the EKC. A significant increase in income per capita is needed for China's CO₂ emissions per capita to reach its peak point in the inverted U-shaped EKC; 2) the ideal equation used to simulate the relationship between China's income per capita and CO₂ emissions per capita after 2010 is In(C_t) = −13.3568 + 3.1708In(I_t) − 0.1608(In(I_t))². This equation can help China's government set its ideal CO₂ control target at a specific income per capita, at least until the income per capita reaches RMB 19,137.2; 3) China's CO₂ emissions per capita will peak some time between 2026 and 2027. After 2027, China's CO₂ emissions per capita will decrease as income per capita increases.

Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve; EKC; China; CO2; carbon dioxide; carbon emissions; segmented equation; partial least squares; PLS; economic growth; income per capita.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2015.070048

International Journal of Global Warming, 2015 Vol.7 No.4, pp.518 - 531

Received: 26 Mar 2013
Accepted: 15 Jan 2014
Published online: 26 Jun 2015 *

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Title: Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares

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Title: Analysing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO₂ emissions in China using segmented equations and partial least squares