Article: Climate variability and its impacts on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC climate change scenarios Journal: International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW) 2015 Vol.8 No.1 pp.46 - 69 Abstract: The output of a regional climate model (RCM), providing regional climate for impact studies (PRECIS), is used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at the Tarbela Reservoir on the Indus River. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation are investigated for possible climate change in the region. The hydrological model was calibrated for the 1995-2004 period and validated for the 1990-1994 period with almost 90% efficiencies. The projections of inflow to the Tarbela Reservoir show that there is an overall increase of 59.42% and 34.27% to the Tarbela Reservoir during the period of 2040-2069 under the A2 and the B2 scenarios, respectively. There will be much more water available in the future, with the highest inflow and comparatively more water shortage noted in the 2020s under the A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climates on the operation of Tarbela Dam are investigated. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Climate variability and its impacts on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC climate change scenarios

Authors: Firdos Khan; Jürgen Pilz; Muhammad Amjad; David A. Wiberg

Addresses: Institut für Statistik, Alpen-Adria Universität, Universitätsstraße 65-67, 9020 Klagenfurt, Austria ' Institut für Statistik, Alpen-Adria Universität, Universitätsstraße 65-67, 9020 Klagenfurt, Austria ' Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC), National Centre for Physics (NCP) Complex, Quaid-i-Azam University, P.O. QAU-45320, Islamabad, Pakistan ' International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract: The output of a regional climate model (RCM), providing regional climate for impact studies (PRECIS), is used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at the Tarbela Reservoir on the Indus River. Maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation are investigated for possible climate change in the region. The hydrological model was calibrated for the 1995-2004 period and validated for the 1990-1994 period with almost 90% efficiencies. The projections of inflow to the Tarbela Reservoir show that there is an overall increase of 59.42% and 34.27% to the Tarbela Reservoir during the period of 2040-2069 under the A2 and the B2 scenarios, respectively. There will be much more water available in the future, with the highest inflow and comparatively more water shortage noted in the 2020s under the A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climates on the operation of Tarbela Dam are investigated.

Keywords: climate change scenarios; hydrological modelling; impact assessment; Indus River; inflow; Tarbela Reservoir; reservoir management; calibration; bias correction; IPCC; regional climate models; hydrology; temperature; precipitation; rainfall; water shortage; Pakistan.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2015.071583

International Journal of Global Warming, 2015 Vol.8 No.1, pp.46 - 69

Received: 22 Nov 2013
Accepted: 21 Mar 2014
Published online: 02 Sep 2015 *

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Title: Climate variability and its impacts on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin under IPCC climate change scenarios

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