Title: Groundwater level modelling using system dynamics approach to investigate the sinkhole events (case study: Abarkuh County Watershed, Iran)

Authors: Mohammad Hossein Bagheri; Taher Mahmoudpour Neychalani; Farshad Fathian; Ali Bagheri

Addresses: Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran ' Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran ' Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract: In the past few decades, withdrawal of groundwater and depletion of aquifers has increased; the aquifers have a negative balance in many plains and consequently, an endangering phenomenon called sinkholes have turned up. This phenomenon has created a concern for the people who lives in Abarkuh county watershed as well. This study attempts to investigate the factors most likely to cause a sinkhole event and evaluation of management strategies, by applying system dynamics approach. The results showed the verification of the model in simulating the groundwater level of the watershed. Moreover, the effects of crop pattern factor in the declining trend of groundwater level and increasing trend of depth of sinkhole event have been detected. In contrast, reducing the irrigation water demand, the withdrawal more than the requirement, and drinking water consumption, as management scenarios, demonstrated the most influence in order to prevent of sinkhole occurrence in the future, respectively.

Keywords: aquifers; sinkholes; system dynamics; Vensim; Iran; groundwater level modelling; case study; simulation; crop patterns; irrigation water demand; drinking water consumption.

DOI: 10.1504/IJHST.2015.072610

International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology, 2015 Vol.5 No.4, pp.295 - 313

Received: 19 Jun 2014
Accepted: 29 Sep 2014
Published online: 22 Oct 2015 *

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