Title: Optimal launch of a new generation of technology: a multi attribute approach discrete time diffusion process

Authors: Nitin Sachdeva; Ompal Singh; P.K. Kapur

Addresses: Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi, India ' Department of Operational Research, University of Delhi, Delhi, India ' Centre for Interdisciplinary Research, Amity University, Noida, UP, India

Abstract: The art of critical decision making in the presence of conflicting objectives has given rise to multi attribute utility theory (MAUT). For any organisation to gain competitive edge in the market it's imperative to optimise launch time of their new product. Too quick a launch impacts the sales of their current generations while delay in launch may lead to customer's disinterest. In order to optimise launch time, customer's adoption behaviour and cost is considered in the proposed study. To analyse the simultaneous impact of both these attributes we make use of MAUT. A discrete Bass model, which is a discrete analogue of the famous Bass model, is proposed. Bass model is developed in continuous time, which limits its application on many real life applications having discrete time data. Therefore, in this paper a discrete innovation diffusion model is proposed using a discrete logistic function and an exact solution is obtained using probability generating function (PGF). The proposed model is validated on three real life datasets and is optimised to obtain optimal launch time using MAUT.

Keywords: multiattribute utility function; MAUT; discrete Bass model; successive generations; optimal launch time; new technology generation; discrete time diffusion; discrete innovation diffusion; new products; new product launch.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTMKT.2016.073351

International Journal of Technology Marketing, 2016 Vol.11 No.1, pp.3 - 23

Received: 11 Nov 2014
Accepted: 23 Mar 2015
Published online: 30 Nov 2015 *

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