Title: A source term estimation method for a nuclear accident using atmospheric dispersion models

Authors: Minsik Kim; Ryohji Ohba; Masamichi Oura; Shinsuke Kato; Masayuki Takigawa; Paul E. Bieringer; Bent Lauritzen; Martin Drews

Addresses: Kato Lab, Institute of Industrial Science-Cw404, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan ' Kato Lab, Institute of Industrial Science-Cw404, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan ' Kato Lab, Institute of Industrial Science-Cw404, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan ' Kato Lab, Institute of Industrial Science-Cw404, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan ' Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan ' Aeris, LLC, 1723 Madison CT Louisville, CO 80027, USA ' Technical University of Denmark, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark ' Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstorvet, Building 426, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

Abstract: The objective of this study is to develop an operational source term estimation (STE) method applicable for a nuclear accident like the incident that occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station in 2011. The new STE method presented here is based on data from atmospheric dispersion models and short-range observational data around the nuclear power plants. The accuracy of this method is validated with data from a wind tunnel study that involved a tracer gas release from a scaled model experiment at Tokai Daini nuclear power station in Japan. We then use the methodology developed and validated through the effort described in this manuscript to estimate the release rate of radioactive material from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station.

Keywords: source term estimation; STE; atmospheric dispersion modelling; wind tunnels; nuclear accidents; nuclear power plants; NPP; release rate; radioactive material; radiation release; nuclear energy; nuclear safety; air pollution.

DOI: 10.1504/IJEP.2015.076582

International Journal of Environment and Pollution, 2015 Vol.58 No.1/2, pp.39 - 51

Received: 17 Dec 2014
Accepted: 07 Oct 2015
Published online: 16 May 2016 *

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