Title: 'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a small island

Authors: José Benedicto Royuela; Malcolm Eames; Susan Buckingham

Addresses: Centre for Human Geography, Brunel University, Kingston Lane, UB8 3PH, London, UK; Facultad de Economía, Universidad de Valencia, Avenida de los Naranjos s/n, 46022, Valenica, Spain ' Low Carbon Research Institute, Welsh School of Architecture, Bute Building, King Edward VII Avenue, Cathays Park, CF10 3NB, Cardiff, UK ' Independent Feminist Environmentalist Researcher and Writer

Abstract: Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development and MCM interviews). Overall, the methodology proved to be successful in informing preferred futures for Flores. One of the findings was the elevated uncertainty associated with each scenario. The project showed the limits of expert knowledge for the appraisal of multidisciplinary holistic scenarios, contradicting the distinction between expert and lay knowledge holders.

Keywords: multicriteria decision analysis; MCDA; multicriteria mapping; MCM; scenario building; small islands; uncertainty; land use management; participative decision making; expert knowledge; foresight scenarios; sustainable development; sustainability; Flores Island; Portugal; lay citizens.

DOI: 10.1504/IJMCDM.2016.077877

International Journal of Multicriteria Decision Making, 2016 Vol.6 No.2, pp.118 - 137

Received: 30 Jan 2015
Accepted: 04 Nov 2015
Published online: 20 Jul 2016 *

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