Article: Assessing the potential impact of future precipitation trends on urban drainage systems under multiple climate change scenarios Journal: International Journal of Global Warming (IJGW) 2016 Vol.10 No.4 pp.437 - 453 Abstract: Investigations of climate change impacts on urban drainage system have been discerned worldwide in the past decades and will attract more attention in the coming future. This paper presents an approach to assessing the possibility of extreme rainfall events under variation greenhouse gas emission scenarios as well as a case study in Hefei City, China. Future precipitation projections were downscaled in a spatiotemporal way firstly, and summarised into intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The changes of the IDF were then compared subsequently between the present condition and the future scenarios. The results indicate that the local rainfall regime will generally stay the same or slightly increase for the drizzles, but the extreme events will become more intensive and frequent. Although uncertainty has been found among the different emission scenarios and the various future periods, it is still notable to take climate change into consideration to deal urban drainage system issues. Inderscience Publishers - linking academia, business and industry through research

Title: Assessing the potential impact of future precipitation trends on urban drainage systems under multiple climate change scenarios

Authors: Hua Bai; Xin Dong; Siyu Zeng; Jining Chen

Addresses: School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ' School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ' School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China ' School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Abstract: Investigations of climate change impacts on urban drainage system have been discerned worldwide in the past decades and will attract more attention in the coming future. This paper presents an approach to assessing the possibility of extreme rainfall events under variation greenhouse gas emission scenarios as well as a case study in Hefei City, China. Future precipitation projections were downscaled in a spatiotemporal way firstly, and summarised into intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. The changes of the IDF were then compared subsequently between the present condition and the future scenarios. The results indicate that the local rainfall regime will generally stay the same or slightly increase for the drizzles, but the extreme events will become more intensive and frequent. Although uncertainty has been found among the different emission scenarios and the various future periods, it is still notable to take climate change into consideration to deal urban drainage system issues.

Keywords: climate change scenarios; urban drainage systems; statistical precipitation downscaling; multiple scenarios; cities; precipitation trends; extreme rainfall events; greenhouse gases; GHG emissions; case study; Hefei City; China; intensity-duration-frequency; IDF curves; drizzle.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2016.079776

International Journal of Global Warming, 2016 Vol.10 No.4, pp.437 - 453

Received: 05 Sep 2014
Accepted: 07 Feb 2015
Published online: 14 Oct 2016 *

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Title: Assessing the potential impact of future precipitation trends on urban drainage systems under multiple climate change scenarios

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