Title: Using patents and innovation strings to anticipate the next Kondratieff long waves

Authors: Luís Roberto Vega-González

Addresses: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Ciencias Aplicadas y Desarrollo Tecnológico, Circuito Exterior S/N, Ciudad Universitaria, A.P. 70-186, Delegación Coyoacán, CP 04510, México D.F., Mexico

Abstract: The theory of Kondratieff's long waves (LWs) has been discussed by socio-economic scientists for nearly a century. Recent works have proposed that since the end of the 19th century there have been at least five well-determined long waves (K-1 to K-5) in the world economy, all of them powered by technology innovations that have fostered economic development in the world nations and transformed society. As the sixth long wave is beginning in the first-quarter of the 21st century, the objective of this work is to propose a model of a physical fission reactor analogy methodology, developed to obtain the string of disruptive innovations that triggered and fed the world economy oscillations in each LW. In addition, we will use the innovation strings found to foresee which may be the characteristics and the technology applications for the K-6 and K-7 long waves.

Keywords: Kondratieff cycles; innovation strings; social complex systems.

DOI: 10.1504/IJTIP.2017.085480

International Journal of Technology Intelligence and Planning, 2017 Vol.11 No.3, pp.212 - 229

Received: 15 Jul 2015
Accepted: 26 Sep 2016
Published online: 28 Jul 2017 *

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