Title: Model for managing uncertainty in aeronautics projects

Authors: Darli Rodrigues Vieira; Raimundo Kennedy Vieira; Milena Chang Chain; Alencar Bravo

Addresses: Management of Aeronautical Projects, University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, 3351, Boul. des Forges, C.P. 500, Trois-Rivières, G9A 5H7, Québec, Canada ' Federal University of Amazonas, Technology Faculty, Av. General Rodrigo, Octávio, 6200, 69077-000, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil ' Management of Aeronautical Projects, University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, 3351, Boul. des Forges, C.P. 500, Trois-Rivières, G9A 5H7, Québec, Canada ' Management of Aeronautical Projects, University of Quebec at Trois-Rivières, 3351, Boul. des Forges, C.P. 500, Trois-Rivières, G9A 5H7, Québec, Canada

Abstract: The uncertainty in the development of aeronautical projects is ultimately a determinant variable in the failure or success of a project due to the impact that a decision will have on the sequence of other project activities. However, there remains a lack of distinction in the literature between the concepts of uncertainty and error. This ultimately influences the type of tool that is used. In this study, uncertainty is presented as the difference between the knowledge required and the knowledge retained when making a decision. Furthermore, it is only appropriate to refer to uncertainty before decision-making, as once a decision is made, only risk remains. This study aims to propose a model to assist decision-makers engaged in the development of aeronautical projects with activities involving uncertainty. The logical sequence presented allows decision-makers to identify, characterise and estimate uncertainty before making a decision.

Keywords: aeronautical; decision; projects; tools; uncertainty; model; management; decision-making; risk; design.

DOI: 10.1504/IJPLM.2017.087573

International Journal of Product Lifecycle Management, 2017 Vol.10 No.3, pp.258 - 278

Received: 25 Feb 2017
Accepted: 28 Jun 2017
Published online: 19 Oct 2017 *

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