Title: Nonlinear dynamics of monthly temperature data set in the Northwestern (Marmara region) Turkey

Authors: Haci Ahmet Yildirim; Hamza Altinsoy

Addresses: Physics Department, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Sakarya University, 54817, Esentepe, Sakarya, Turkey ' Physics Department, Boğaziçi University, North Campus KB Building Floor 3-4 34342, Bebek, İstanbul, Turkey; The Ministry of Labor and Social Security, The General Directorate of Occupational Health and Safety, Occupational Health and Safety Institution, İstanbul Road 14th Km 06370, Köyler, Ankara, Turkey

Abstract: Temperature is one of the essential quantities which affect the agriculture, economy, survival of animal and plant species. Turkey, located in the interconnection of Europe and Asia, contains various climate types. In this research, dynamics of temperature values over northeastern Turkey is investigated via nonlinear time series techniques. Monthly data set, through the period between 1960 and 2006, from various parts of the region is used to understand the underlying dynamics and its spatial distribution. Well-known phase space reconstruction method is used to calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent for each data set which will indicate the chaotic behaviour. Along with the nonlinear time series analysis, statistical properties of the data are also determined to reveal any possible trends in the data. Calculated positive Lyapunov exponents indicate that the time series of average monthly temperature values have a possible chaotic underlying dynamics over the region.

Keywords: chaos; Lyapunov exponents; Turkey; Marmara; maximum temperature.

DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.088647

International Journal of Global Warming, 2018 Vol.14 No.1, pp.97 - 117

Received: 22 Aug 2015
Accepted: 17 Feb 2016
Published online: 14 Dec 2017 *

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